It Will All Come Down to Protest

Why Mass Resistance Will Decide Democracy's Fate

This post follows last week’s argument about why the midterms won’t “save” American democracy.

I’m a game theorist. I analyze politics the way strategists analyze war or markets: as a game between players with clear goals, constraints, and incentives. When you trace those choices forward, step by step, the likely outcome often becomes painfully clear.

When I run that exercise for the next two U.S. elections in 2026 and 2028, the conclusion is increasingly obvious. American democracy will only be saved by ordinary citizens. No one else is going to do it for us.

Here are the two main paths forward:

Path One: Overwhelming Electoral Turnout (The Temporary Fix)

The first and more uncertain path is gangbuster turnout in 2026 - so high that Democrats decisively win in the House, particularly in the roughly two dozen competitive districts that will determine control. Better still would be flipping both the House and Senate. Three to five seats in the House would allow Democrats to block legislation, launch investigations, and constrain executive power at least for the next two years. That’s exactly why Trump has spent the past year pressuring states to redraw congressional maps - he knows how important this is in the short-term.

For Democrats to win cleanly enough that results can’t be plausibly contested, turnout would need to exceed 2018 levels, when a bit more than 50 percent of eligible voters participated. This was the highest midterm turnout in at least forty years. To exceed it would require younger voters, voters of color, and suburban voters to suddenly engage at an even higher rate even though they are least likely to vote in midterms.

If turnout falls short and Democrats eke out only narrow victories, Trump will likely contest every close race. Recounts could then drag on for weeks or months, overseen by state officials loyal to Trump. Disputes would move into courts dominated by Trump-appointed judges. And the Constitution ultimately gives the House authority to judge the elections of its members. A Republican-controlled House could simply refuse to seat Democratic winners in contested districts.

In that scenario, Republicans retain Congress and Trump faces few constraints over the next two years. Suspending the 2028 elections or securing approval for another term are no longer unthinkable. Trump has already floated canceling elections. This is his path to continued power.

But here’s the problem with Path One: even if it works, it only buys time. Democrats taking Congress in 2026 slows Trump down for two years. But then what? Will those newly elected Democrats actually strengthen democratic institutions - reforms like ending gerrymandering, protecting voting rights, limiting executive power? History suggests politicians rarely constrain their own power once they have it. And then 2028 arrives, and we’re right back where we started, hoping for massive turnout all over again.

Which brings us to the more powerful path.

Path Two: Mass Resistance (The Real Solution)

If Congress can’t or won’t constrain Trump, the only remaining check will be mass resistance. This is the path that actually changes the game because it’s the only one where ordinary citizens directly assert their power and demand immediate structural reforms.

Decades of research show that sustained, nonviolent resistance is extraordinarily effective against autocrats. When roughly 3.5 percent of a population engages in coordinated action - strikes, boycotts, work stoppages, protests, civil disobedience - those movements succeed with remarkable consistency.

Three and a half percent of the United States is 12 million people.

Imagine if, for 14 straight days, 12 million people stopped going to work. Warehouse workers didn’t show up. Packages piled up. Port workers slowed operations. Containers backed up offshore. Truck drivers refused nonessential routes. Regional shortages appeared within days.

Healthcare workers provided emergency care only. Teachers suspended instruction. Air traffic controllers staged rolling sick-outs. Flights were canceled unpredictably. Tech workers logged off. Customer service collapsed.

Meanwhile, millions stopped spending. No Amazon orders. No discretionary purchases. Credit card data showed an immediate drop. Markets noticed.

At the same time, people showed up to courthouses, federal buildings, state capitols. Buildings were occupied peacefully but persistently. Every day. City after city. The same demands.

State capitols were surrounded. Lawmakers were escorted through back entrances. Staffers stopped coming to work.

It would be impossible to arrest thousands. And if the government used excessive force, thousands more protesters would likely flood the streets. National Guard deployments would grow costly. Governors would quietly urge compromise. Business leaders would call for “stability,” then “dialogue,” then “a return to constitutional norms. ” They would do this not because they suddenly cared about democracy but because uncertainty kills profits.

By the second week, the question wouldn’t be whether the movement would fade. It would be about who gives in first.

The difference between the first and second path is this: mass resistance doesn’t ask politicians to save democracy. It forces them to. A mobilized population of millions doesn’t wait for the next election cycle or hope that elected officials follow through on promises. It creates a crisis that can only be resolved through immediate democratic reforms - reforms that restore power to the people, not to whichever party won the last election.

America has never seen anything like this. Now imagine if just 10 percent of Americans - 34 million people - participated. It would be an unprecedented shock to the system.

This is how autocrats fall. Hosni Mubarak ruled Egypt for three decades, controlling the military, security services, and media. No one expected his collapse. Then in January 2011, millions took to the streets. It took only 18 days of sustained protest to convince Mubarak to flee.

The Bottom Line

Mass turnout could flip Congress and brake Trump - but only temporarily. Even if it is successful, this path to meaningful reform of our democracy would be hard and heavily resisted by those who benefit from the current system.

If mass turnout doesn’t happen, it all comes down to mass resistance.

So the bottom line is this: do Americans care enough about our democracy, about the freedoms we’ve had for generations, to take real action to defend them?

Because if we don’t, no one else will

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