Barbara, this is excellent game theory and I appreciate the clear framework. Let me add a dimension you might find interesting…one I explored in my World Ahead 2026: Part 3.
There’s a third path running parallel to yours: international decoupling.
While Americans navigate your Path One and Path Two domestically, allies aren’t waiting to see which succeeds. They’re building alternatives now that don’t depend on American democracy recovering.
Canada is accelerating EU defense partnerships. Europe is activating the Anti-Coercion Instrument (designed for China, now aimed at Washington). Japan and South Korea are building indigenous defense capability. This isn’t contingent on whether American resistance succeeds, it’s happening because they can’t afford to wait.
The game theory insight I’d add: Even if Path One or Path Two works domestically, the international damage compounds regardless. A country that threatens allied territory, deploys federal agents to occupy cities, and discusses canceling elections has already crossed thresholds that disqualify it as a reliable partner; whether resistance ultimately succeeds or not.
Threshold for sustained resistance is spot-on historically…The challenge is that modern autocrats have studied those same cases. NSPM-7 designates protesters as domestic terrorists. ICE functions as domestic paramilitary. DOJ weaponizes against organizers. They’re explicitly building countermeasures to prevent that piece from materializing or sustaining.
So there’s a parallel dynamic: while Americans determine whether they care enough to resist (your critical question), the international system is recalibrating around the assumption that American institutions are unreliable, regardless of outcome.
Both games are playing out simultaneously.
Thought you might find that international dimension useful for the broader analysis.
Thx. After PM speeches at Davos - Carney and Macron - I am giving a lot of thought to the decoupling. Question for you: If the goal is to save American Democracy, how does the decoupling work toward that?
Thank you for the thoughtful question. It’s making me think this through more carefully.
You’re right to push on this. The decoupling isn’t designed to save American democracy. Its allies hedging against its collapse while building alternatives that work regardless of what happens here.
But here’s the nuance: That external pressure might actually help American democracy rebuild. When the cost of authoritarian drift is genuine isolation (economic, military, diplomatic), it changes domestic calculations. If allies follow through instead of hoping things improve, Americans face a real choice: democracy or isolation.
The best-case scenario? American institutions somehow stabilize, democracy endures or rebuilds, and those alternatives allies built become redundant or complementary rather than competitive. The world would benefit from a democratic US partner again.
But allies can’t make their security and prosperity contingent on that best case. They have to build for the worst case while hoping for the best.
Carney’s speech was brilliant because he didn’t appease the bully. He spoke clearly: we’re building what comes next, with or without you. That honesty might be exactly what’s needed. Not abandonment, but refusal to enable.
The hedging and alternatives protect everyone else. Whether they also create conditions for American democratic recovery is the open question.
Thanks for making me sharpen this.
If you haven’t, take a look at my World Ahead 2026: Part 3 in my posts section.
Thx for your reply. Glad you thought it was a good question. I can definitely see that 3rd path of decoupling producing effects at home that can work to persuade some of his coalition to separate themselves from him.
I have always wanted to believe in mass, non-violent protests and resistance as you have described. But with this president who has unleashed the full, powerful, and violent thugs in ICE, Homeland Security, and the National Guard, any uprisings will be immediately met with overwhelming force. I once had hoped the National Guard and the US Military would resist such an illegal order, but given what we have seen, I doubt it.
So, there is another way, and that is the economic collapse of the entire US and Western economy. It is already well on its way with the National Debt over $38 Trillion and rising rapidly; household debt at $18 Trillion; inflation, rising costs of food and everything else; and the boomerang effect of all of those sanctions on friend and foe alike, plus Russia, China India and the BRICS now accelerating the decoupling from the Dollar, we have all of the elements of the Perfect Storm! This is not a war against Trump, and the corrupt politicians, it is a Class War between the evil masters of money and humanity. That's where we're at today. Getting rid of Trump solves nothing. It's the entire economic, political, and ideological system.
"any uprisings will be immediately met with overwhelming force" - so far they haven't. Certainly not peaceful ones. There was absolutely no show of force for the No Kings demonstrations last October. In fact, Trumpworld predicted anitfa violence and none occurred, so they had egg on their face then.
Trump WANTS violence. Minneapolis Mayor Frey warned his citizens not to take the bait which is what some of them did and they were arrested. If uprisings, as you call them, I prefer nonviolent resistance. Nonviolence on our side is the essential key. It worked for Gandhi, MLK and the Velvet Revolution.
Walter's 3.5% framework is essential—and Minnesota is about to test it.
Tomorrow, January 23, a coalition including the Minnesota AFL-CIO, SEIU Local 26, Minneapolis and St. Paul teachers' federations, transit workers, and dozens of community organizations has called for a one-day general strike: no work, no school, no shopping. Nine grocery co-ops are closing. A march honoring Renee Good starts at 2 PM in Minneapolis.
This is Walter's theory meeting practice. The regime has already shown its response: 3,000+ federal agents, chemical agents sprayed into faces, a U.S. citizen killed. The commander running these operations—Gregory Bovino—has deployed this playbook across five cities. His agent killed Renee Good on January 7. DHS called her the domestic terrorist.
Walter is right that excessive force typically brings more protesters. Tomorrow we find out if Minnesotans show up anyway—in below-zero temperatures, facing masked federal agents, knowing exactly what happened to Renee Good.
That's what real resistance looks like. Watch Minnesota.
Barbara, you are still swimming on the surface & not penetrating the depth of America's crisis. You talked about removal of Mubarak but removal of Mubarak changed nothing for Egyptians. Egypt society is no better in material wealth & liberties under new dictator (Sisi, who BTW is Democratically elected by 90% of votes!). While Egyptians got rid off Mubarak, the Structures that perpetuated structural & overt violence on Egyptian society remained intact.
You only see America's crisis from Trump centric point of view. But Trump is an ENDOGENOUS VARIABLE - a symptom of America's systemic crisis, not its cause.
Barbara, I strongly suggest you to read Schumpeter's theory of Democracy to understand America's crisis. The crisis of America is deeply rooted.
It's rooted in its economic structures which has created a gargantuan inequality & loss of opportunities for many Americans.
Its rooted in emergence of oligarchy which controls entire political & economic landscape. You can get rid of Trump, Oligarchy will install some new leader & perpetuate the injustices in America.
The crisis is rooted in Fascistization of SCOTUS. Even if by some miracle, you have a honest President, he can't work under a Fascist SCOTUS. Biden administration was completely paralyzed by Supreme Court.
Its rooted in institutions of America which are now thoroughly politicized and corrupted. You need to overhaul the DOJ, the court system, the regulatory agencies, the Police system etc etc.
-----------------------
Barbara, you also put too much faith in Mass mobilization but mass mobilization can go either way, it can get rid of a dictator or it can install one. Masses don't have any intellect Barbara, they only have emotions. Although I sincerely wish that American people will mobilize with positive energy & enthusiasm rather than negative.
But Barbara, in your overall thesis, I was disappointed to see no mention of Oligarchical threat to American democracy. How will you tame people like Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, Jamie Dimon, Jeff Bezos etc etc? These are the real power brokers and Trump is just a variable. You can remove Trump but some new variable will take its place. So how do you propose to challenge the oligarchical power? Please do tell.
I’ve got a list of my local Chamber of Commerce chapter, local Councilmen, Mayor and others leaders and I’m calling them to express how disappointed I am in ICE having a staging area in our local Downtown. We just got foot traffic back after COVID and these businesses cannot handle a decrease in sales right now. We need to pressure them to speak out or they will suffer too. Get the word out folks, we can do this 🌺
Barbara, this is excellent game theory and I appreciate the clear framework. Let me add a dimension you might find interesting…one I explored in my World Ahead 2026: Part 3.
There’s a third path running parallel to yours: international decoupling.
While Americans navigate your Path One and Path Two domestically, allies aren’t waiting to see which succeeds. They’re building alternatives now that don’t depend on American democracy recovering.
Canada is accelerating EU defense partnerships. Europe is activating the Anti-Coercion Instrument (designed for China, now aimed at Washington). Japan and South Korea are building indigenous defense capability. This isn’t contingent on whether American resistance succeeds, it’s happening because they can’t afford to wait.
The game theory insight I’d add: Even if Path One or Path Two works domestically, the international damage compounds regardless. A country that threatens allied territory, deploys federal agents to occupy cities, and discusses canceling elections has already crossed thresholds that disqualify it as a reliable partner; whether resistance ultimately succeeds or not.
Threshold for sustained resistance is spot-on historically…The challenge is that modern autocrats have studied those same cases. NSPM-7 designates protesters as domestic terrorists. ICE functions as domestic paramilitary. DOJ weaponizes against organizers. They’re explicitly building countermeasures to prevent that piece from materializing or sustaining.
So there’s a parallel dynamic: while Americans determine whether they care enough to resist (your critical question), the international system is recalibrating around the assumption that American institutions are unreliable, regardless of outcome.
Both games are playing out simultaneously.
Thought you might find that international dimension useful for the broader analysis.
— Johan
Former foreign service officer
Behavioral science professor
Thx. After PM speeches at Davos - Carney and Macron - I am giving a lot of thought to the decoupling. Question for you: If the goal is to save American Democracy, how does the decoupling work toward that?
Thank you for the thoughtful question. It’s making me think this through more carefully.
You’re right to push on this. The decoupling isn’t designed to save American democracy. Its allies hedging against its collapse while building alternatives that work regardless of what happens here.
But here’s the nuance: That external pressure might actually help American democracy rebuild. When the cost of authoritarian drift is genuine isolation (economic, military, diplomatic), it changes domestic calculations. If allies follow through instead of hoping things improve, Americans face a real choice: democracy or isolation.
The best-case scenario? American institutions somehow stabilize, democracy endures or rebuilds, and those alternatives allies built become redundant or complementary rather than competitive. The world would benefit from a democratic US partner again.
But allies can’t make their security and prosperity contingent on that best case. They have to build for the worst case while hoping for the best.
Carney’s speech was brilliant because he didn’t appease the bully. He spoke clearly: we’re building what comes next, with or without you. That honesty might be exactly what’s needed. Not abandonment, but refusal to enable.
The hedging and alternatives protect everyone else. Whether they also create conditions for American democratic recovery is the open question.
Thanks for making me sharpen this.
If you haven’t, take a look at my World Ahead 2026: Part 3 in my posts section.
— Johan
Thx for your reply. Glad you thought it was a good question. I can definitely see that 3rd path of decoupling producing effects at home that can work to persuade some of his coalition to separate themselves from him.
I hope I don't disappoint!
I have always wanted to believe in mass, non-violent protests and resistance as you have described. But with this president who has unleashed the full, powerful, and violent thugs in ICE, Homeland Security, and the National Guard, any uprisings will be immediately met with overwhelming force. I once had hoped the National Guard and the US Military would resist such an illegal order, but given what we have seen, I doubt it.
So, there is another way, and that is the economic collapse of the entire US and Western economy. It is already well on its way with the National Debt over $38 Trillion and rising rapidly; household debt at $18 Trillion; inflation, rising costs of food and everything else; and the boomerang effect of all of those sanctions on friend and foe alike, plus Russia, China India and the BRICS now accelerating the decoupling from the Dollar, we have all of the elements of the Perfect Storm! This is not a war against Trump, and the corrupt politicians, it is a Class War between the evil masters of money and humanity. That's where we're at today. Getting rid of Trump solves nothing. It's the entire economic, political, and ideological system.
"any uprisings will be immediately met with overwhelming force" - so far they haven't. Certainly not peaceful ones. There was absolutely no show of force for the No Kings demonstrations last October. In fact, Trumpworld predicted anitfa violence and none occurred, so they had egg on their face then.
Trump WANTS violence. Minneapolis Mayor Frey warned his citizens not to take the bait which is what some of them did and they were arrested. If uprisings, as you call them, I prefer nonviolent resistance. Nonviolence on our side is the essential key. It worked for Gandhi, MLK and the Velvet Revolution.
I wait in anticipation for every Dragon!
Disturbing but inspirational. Do Americans of our current era have it in us to go the distance? God, I hope so.
Walter's 3.5% framework is essential—and Minnesota is about to test it.
Tomorrow, January 23, a coalition including the Minnesota AFL-CIO, SEIU Local 26, Minneapolis and St. Paul teachers' federations, transit workers, and dozens of community organizations has called for a one-day general strike: no work, no school, no shopping. Nine grocery co-ops are closing. A march honoring Renee Good starts at 2 PM in Minneapolis.
This is Walter's theory meeting practice. The regime has already shown its response: 3,000+ federal agents, chemical agents sprayed into faces, a U.S. citizen killed. The commander running these operations—Gregory Bovino—has deployed this playbook across five cities. His agent killed Renee Good on January 7. DHS called her the domestic terrorist.
Walter is right that excessive force typically brings more protesters. Tomorrow we find out if Minnesotans show up anyway—in below-zero temperatures, facing masked federal agents, knowing exactly what happened to Renee Good.
That's what real resistance looks like. Watch Minnesota.
Barbara, are you saying either path 1 or path 2? Why not both/and? The energy generated in each path will affect the other path. Synergy.
Also, this organization is working to boost turnout among the very groups you cited: https://turnoutpac.org.
I always love your thoughts and perspectives!! Thank you for being a trusting voice I can turn to in these crazy times!!
How can we get enough people on track 2?? I know the numbers are there, I think it’s just about getting most of us to be brave enough??
Brilliant. Path 2 is exactly what I believe being the best option and clear solution. Here is my article about it: https://open.substack.com/pub/luca145343/p/the-moment-the-country-quietly-stood?r=ydzs6&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay
Barbara, you are still swimming on the surface & not penetrating the depth of America's crisis. You talked about removal of Mubarak but removal of Mubarak changed nothing for Egyptians. Egypt society is no better in material wealth & liberties under new dictator (Sisi, who BTW is Democratically elected by 90% of votes!). While Egyptians got rid off Mubarak, the Structures that perpetuated structural & overt violence on Egyptian society remained intact.
You only see America's crisis from Trump centric point of view. But Trump is an ENDOGENOUS VARIABLE - a symptom of America's systemic crisis, not its cause.
Barbara, I strongly suggest you to read Schumpeter's theory of Democracy to understand America's crisis. The crisis of America is deeply rooted.
It's rooted in its economic structures which has created a gargantuan inequality & loss of opportunities for many Americans.
Its rooted in emergence of oligarchy which controls entire political & economic landscape. You can get rid of Trump, Oligarchy will install some new leader & perpetuate the injustices in America.
The crisis is rooted in Fascistization of SCOTUS. Even if by some miracle, you have a honest President, he can't work under a Fascist SCOTUS. Biden administration was completely paralyzed by Supreme Court.
Its rooted in institutions of America which are now thoroughly politicized and corrupted. You need to overhaul the DOJ, the court system, the regulatory agencies, the Police system etc etc.
-----------------------
Barbara, you also put too much faith in Mass mobilization but mass mobilization can go either way, it can get rid of a dictator or it can install one. Masses don't have any intellect Barbara, they only have emotions. Although I sincerely wish that American people will mobilize with positive energy & enthusiasm rather than negative.
But Barbara, in your overall thesis, I was disappointed to see no mention of Oligarchical threat to American democracy. How will you tame people like Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, Jamie Dimon, Jeff Bezos etc etc? These are the real power brokers and Trump is just a variable. You can remove Trump but some new variable will take its place. So how do you propose to challenge the oligarchical power? Please do tell.
Some of my articles, worth reading.
https://3rdworldecon.substack.com/p/concept-of-political-legitimacy-and
On addressing inequality and ideas to solve it
https://3rdworldecon.substack.com/p/late-stage-capitalism-and-inequality
My ebook on MAGA crisis is free
https://3rdworldecon.substack.com/p/the-rise-of-maga-and-american-oligarchy
I’ve got a list of my local Chamber of Commerce chapter, local Councilmen, Mayor and others leaders and I’m calling them to express how disappointed I am in ICE having a staging area in our local Downtown. We just got foot traffic back after COVID and these businesses cannot handle a decrease in sales right now. We need to pressure them to speak out or they will suffer too. Get the word out folks, we can do this 🌺