The First Crack in Trump's Wall of Fear

What Happens When Elites Stop Fearing a President

Something big happened this week. Senate Republicans - the same people who have rubber-stamped almost everything Trump has asked for since January 2025 - finally stood up to him. Under no circumstances would they support his $1.776 billion “anti-weaponization” fund. Nyet.

The Republicans finally confronted their bully and he backed down. Quickly.

So what does this mean? For Trump, for his party, and for the rest of us?

This was a good week for America and for the Republican Party. It was bad for Trump.

The “anti-weaponization” fund was brazen. But Trump has done a lot a brazen things with no pushback from Republicans. (Remember: he pardoned all 1,500+ January 6 defendants on his first day in office.)

But this fund was a step too far. First, it was crooked to the core. Trump sued the IRS over leaked tax returns and then settled the lawsuit with himself, through his own attorney general, for a huge sum. Taxpayers would foot the bill. This was pure kleptocracy; shamelessly pillaging any state coffer he could find.

Second, Trump could use this slush fund any way he wanted, and he was going to use it to pay the people who have been most willing to defend him, violently and treasonously. The January 6^th defenders could potentially each get over $800,000. It was not only a reward for people willing to use violence to keep Trump in power in 2020, but a signal that those willing to fight for him in 2028 would also be taken care of.

And just when you thought it couldn’t get worse, it did. Buried in the settlement was a provision shielding Trump and his family from future IRS scrutiny of their tax returns. He didn’t just take the money. He made sure no one would ever be allowed to come looking for it.

This was the straw that broke Republican Senators’ backs.

Why This Time Was Different

This time was different because this deal was going to cost them personally. Voters hated this bill. Republican senators, including ones from deep red states heard from their constituents. Rich people and business leaders hated this bill. Trump was asking his senators to fall on their swords for his own personal enrichment, and they looked at their 2026 reelection prospects and said no.

For the first time, siding with Trump was more likely to get them thrown out of power by Republican voters back home, then keep them in power. How do you explain to your constituents that the people who attacked law enforcement on January 6^th deserved to be rewarded? How do you tell that to the cops? Turns out there are limits even MAGA voters won’t cross.

The First Crack and Why More Are Likely to Follow

So what does this mean for Trump moving forward? In the literature on authoritarian politics, autocrats survive because elites stay in line. The moment political leaders, business leaders, media leaders feel it’s more costly to continue to support a leader, they start to say no. This week is the first sign of elite defection since Trump returned to office.

I think the defections are going to continue and here’s why.

The scholarly research tells us that defections tend to cascade if four conditions exist:

1. Early defection is public and includes many people. A single senator grumbling anonymously to Politico changes nothing. This week’s defection of Republican senators was public and substantial. Trump can primary one or two senators but he can’t primary all of them simultaneously.

2. The leader doesn’t punish the defectors. The moment the leader lets defection go unpunished, every other potential defector in the building updates their math. Trump backed down faster than anyone thought.

3. The issue has staying power. Voters must care about corruption and continue to pay attention. We now know that even voters in deep red states are deeply uncomfortable with Trump’s corruption, especially at a moment when food and gas prices remain so high. That combination is politically dangerous because people are unlikely to forget it anytime soon.

4. The regime no longer controls enough spoils. Levitsky and Way’s research shows that as long as the leader can credibly promise rewards for loyalty (jobs in his administration, contracts, protection, endorsements) defection stays costly. When the spoils dry up, the rats jump ship. And if the Democrats gain one or both houses of Congress, the spoils will dry up.

What Usually Happens Next

Aspiring autocrats who suffer a first visible defeat will often try to strike back hard. Trump will likely try to hurt those Senators when they seek re-election in the fall. But those Senators see something that most Americans don’t yet see – Trump is likely to be significantly weaker in the fall than today. More elites are likely to defect between now and then because the conditions that encourage defection are there.

Of course, much will depend on the economy and on whether Democrats can field candidates and a vision that voters actually want to support. But right now the economy doesn’t appear likely to improve dramatically before the midterms. And if Democrats can get organized and disciplined quickly, Republicans may decide that tying themselves to Trump is becoming more dangerous than breaking from him.

We just heard the first shout from Republicans that Trump has no clothes. After November, this could cascade quickly.