Stop Waiting for the Midterms to Save Us

Many Americans are holding their breath until November 2026. “If we can just flip the House,” friends tell me, “Trump will be contained.” They’re counting down the days, convinced that elections will happen as scheduled, votes will be counted fairly, and results will be respected.

I wish I shared their confidence.

I’ve spent three decades studying how democracies collapse, and here’s what I’ve learned: leaders like Trump don’t wait passively for midterms to take away their power. They spend the months beforehand making sure those elections can’t hurt them.

While we’re waiting patiently for November, Trump’s team is working overtime to ensure that his side wins.

The Autocrat’s Playbook

The research on competitive authoritarian regimes is clear. When would-be autocrats face potential electoral losses, they follow a clear plan.

First, they rig the game. They don’t cancel elections – that would be too obvious. Instead, they manipulate electoral rules, redraw districts, make it hard to vote, and most importantly, install loyalists in positions that oversee elections. Trump is doing all of these things.

Second, they preemptively cry fraud. Trump’s already doing this. He’s repeatedly claimed with no evidence that Democrats are preparing to steal 2026. This is part of the plan. If you prime your supporters to believe that any loss means fraud, then when you lose, you can reject the results and they’ll back you. In fact, they’ll likely demand that you fight back.

Third, they weaponize the state. We’re seeing this today with Jerome Powell and saw it with the DOJ’s antitrust lawsuit against Time Warner. Regulatory agencies suddenly discover violations at businesses whose CEOs criticized the government. Tax audits are launched against donors of the Democratic party. Prosecutors investigate political enemies (such as James Comey or Letitia James) on charges that evaporate under scrutiny.

The Danger Zone: Six Months Out

Would-be autocrats are most dangerous in the 6-12 months before an election they think they might lose. This is when they really start to take down the guardrails. Career civil servants get purged and replaced with loyalists who’ll do what they’re told. Independent agencies become extensions of the executive. Courts stacked with friendly judges slow-walk or dismiss any challenge related to presidential overreach.

Violence and the threat of violence escalates as well. A journalist is attacked, an election official threatened, opposition figures are intimidated. These “isolated incidents” have a silencing effect.

But the most insidious moves are the longer-term changes that are difficult to reverse and protect the leader and his party even in the opposition wins seats. Stack the courts? Done - those judges serve for life. Move power from Congress to the executive through executive orders? Hard to reverse. Gut oversight mechanisms? Even harder to rebuild. Change budget rules so a new Congress can’t actually control spending? Check. The goal is to make victory for the opposition meaningless.

What to Watch in 2026

So what should we expect in the next eleven months?

More loyalists in critical positions. Watch state-level positions: secretaries of state, election board members, anyone who’ll count or certify votes. These are the people who’ll decide what happens if results are contested. And the results will be contested anywhere where the outcome is close. So…volunteer as a poll worker or election observer, show up to county election board meetings, and publicly support election officials when they’re attacked.

Increased weaponization of federal power. The plan also includes more selective investigations of people who criticize Trump. More regulatory harassment of businesses that have not embraced Trump and his message. More prosecutions of prominent Democrats or Trump critics on charges that conveniently land right before the election.

Growing political violence or threats. We’re already seeing it: election workers, public officials, and judges receiving death threats. The goal is to intimidate them into submission.

Institutional sabotage. This is the big one. Watch for changes that would constrain a Democratic House even if democrats win. Last-minute regulations that take years to undo. Executive orders designed to be irreversible. Budget maneuvers that limit congressional power. Court appointments that lock in a conservative judiciary for decades.

The next eleven months aren’t about what happens in November. They’re about whether we’ll have free and fair elections at all. So, pay attention to who’s being appointed and where. Notice which businesses suddenly face federal investigations. Watch what happens to election officials who stood up to pressure in 2020. Track the executive orders and regulatory changes flying under the radar. And speak up and defend them.

Don’t assume the m

idterms will save us. If we’re not actively defending the democratic process right now, we may find there’s nothing left to save come November.